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Believe Half of What You See (And None of What You Hear)

Reports emerged this week that Ukrainian forces allegedly conducted a missile strike on the headquarters of the Russian ‘Dnepr’ Grouping of Forces in Kherson Oblast on November 1, as per the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Prominent Russian military bloggers stated that Ukrainian forces launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles and Neptune anti-ship missiles targeting Strilkove in Kherson Oblast on the Arabat Spit, with Russian air defenses intercepting only half of the incoming missiles.

Multiple sources confirmed that Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, the newly appointed commander of the Russian ‘Dnepr’ Grouping of Forces, was unharmed. The opposition media outlet Astra reported that four missiles struck the ‘Aura’ recreation center, which served as the headquarters for the Russian forces.

The ISW’s analysis of geolocated imagery suggests a slow but incremental advance by Ukrainian forces into Russian-occupied territories. For instance, Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 2.

US intelligence officials believe the Russian effort to recapture Avdiivka has been one of the most resource-draining battles since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Lieutenant General Jonathan Braga noted that approximately 17,000 Russian troops have deserted since the onset of the conflict. He emphasized the impact of Ukrainian information operations, saying, “Messaging has played a huge role just in the tactical and operational sense.”

Evidence suggests that Russian forces are grappling with low morale, especially since the introduction of “meat attacks” against targets such as Avdiivka. Reports indicate that Russian officers have been executing troops who refuse to advance.

The war has highlighted challenges for air defense systems in managing large volumes of inbound cruise and ballistic missiles. The UK’s Ministry of Defense noted that the balance of land combat typically favors the defending force and cited the geographic scale of the conflict as a hindrance to breakthroughs.

In a separate development, Russia reportedly lost at least four long-range air defense missile systems to Ukrainian strikes in the past week. Meanwhile, plans by the Wagner Group to supply Pantsir air defense systems to Hezbollah remain unclear.

The Associated Press (AP) experienced a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack on Tuesday, rendering its site intermittently unavailable. Anonymous Sudan, believed to be a front for Russian intelligence, claimed intentions to disrupt Western media, leading to speculation that it was behind the AP attack.

Microsoft, in its Secure Future Initiative, noted that the conflict in Ukraine has shown the tech sector’s capability to develop strong cybersecurity defenses. The company has committed to leveraging AI for enhancing threat intelligence, defeating cyberattacks at machine speed, and securing AI services based on responsible principles.

Author

Steve King

Managing Director, CyberEd

King, an experienced cybersecurity professional, has served in senior leadership roles in technology development for the past 20 years. He has founded nine startups, including Endymion Systems and seeCommerce. He has held leadership roles in marketing and product development, operating as CEO, CTO and CISO for several startups, including Netswitch Technology Management. He also served as CIO for Memorex and was the co-founder of the Cambridge Systems Group.

 

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